How China Will Change The Movie Industry

I post about the Chinese cinema quite a bit - the good/the bad.  The thing is, China (within several years) will become the world's largest box office surpassing the U.S.  The major Hollywood studios are well aware of this and have been forging all manner of deals and alliances to ensure their movies get distribution in China.

The question than becomes, will Chinese likes and dislikes change what types of movies are produced.  In the last few years the major studios have bent over backwards to cater to the expanding demand for movies in China - setting up co-production deals for the likes of 'Iron Man 3' and 'Transformers:Age of Extinction', with the goal of bypassing China's strict 34 foreign movie per year quota system.  Additionally, Chinese movie stars have been placed into roles in Hollywood produced films in the hopes of  increasing their appeal from Chinese audiences. Dreamworks and Warner Bros. have been the most active of the studios in setting up co-partnerships with Chinese film companies to produce Chinese language movies for domestic consumption which will never be viewed at U.S. cinemas.

Blockbuster production/marketing budgets, in many cases, now exceed $200 million, making Hollywood reliant on the Chinese moviegoer to turn a profit.  So, it's no stretch to think that films will more and more need to cater to Chinese tastes.  Movies that currently do well at the Chinese box office are heavy special effects sci-fi and fantasy films with little, if any, racy or sexual content. You need only to review the biggest global box office earners to see examples of these films.

Given all of this, it appears that we will all be seeing more movies playing to a Chinese audience vs. what caters to American tastes.  While this year's box office sleepers, such as, 'Straight Outta Compton' and 'Trainwreck' would probably have made the cut, given their low budgets, more expensive films would not have been produced as they would not play well in China.  As China moves toward box office dominance big-budget comedies or action films with a message that do not garner Chinese audience attendance will not be green-lit for production.  And, it goes without saying, that any movie with so much as a hint of political nuance will never be screened.

It's been said that in the future there will be a two-tiered box office - one exhibiting big-budget blockbusters at cinemas for a per view price of $15-25, and  low-budget films with a view price of $8-12.  However, China's eventual dominance may mean that the $25 per view price may not be required.

To me, the new normal in movie exhibition will be that the global box office will be split between the $200 million blockbusters (that will play very well in China and pass censor scrutiny) and the low-budget, non-special effects dramas and comedies that will be targeted to either an American or Chinese audience.  Any film that falls between these two categories will have little chance of being made.