Cinema Mucho Gusto's 2026 Cinema Industry Predictions

Each year, CMG forecasts the major events impacting the cinema industry over the next year. For 2026, the changes will be profound. 

•  The U.S. box office will exceed $10 billion in 2026, while global admissions, fueled by Hollywood releases, will exceed $35 billion. The cinema is back and will be stronger than ever.

Just a few of the 2026 releases

•  Micro-dramas will continue to grow exponentially in user popularity. With 40% of viewers being 18-45 males, the emphasis of these short-form soap operas (with minimal subscription fees) will be on action and sci-fi content. Check out ReelShort, DramaBox, and FlairFlow, to name several.

•  The face of Hollywood is changing. The industry will continue to consolidate with a slew of new CEOs, which will change how studios operate. David Ellison at Paramount (and possibly Warner Bros. if Netflix doesn't win the bid), Lachlan Murdoch at Fox, Mike Cavanagh at Comcast/Universal, and a new head at Disney (yet to be announced).

David Ellison - The young bloods take over Hollywood

•  2026 will debut the first AI-generated movie star to be featured in a first-run film. Whether it will be accepted by mainstream moviegoers (let alone mainstream Hollywood) is iffy. Exceptional AI-generated content will go viral and be viewed by millions.

Tilly Norwood, the first AI-generated movie star

• In early 2025, California passed a law expanding the film and TV tax credit program by $750 million. However, the changes in the tax program have come too late. There are simply too many film/TV production sites (both in the U.S. and overseas) that offer significantly lower labor and material costs than those in California. 

• YouTube will remain the King of all media. In 2026, not only will it retain its throne, but also become the largest pay-TV platform in the U.S. YouTube currently has 125 million subscribers to its Premium and Music channels. Primetime and Sunday Ticket platforms will be added in 2026. Without doubt, YouTube will be the biggest source of entertainment, creator programming, pay TV, and user/subscription dominance in the world.

Google has it all: YouTube, AI, Waymo, Search, Cloud

• Disney will purchase Taylor Swift's production and events company for a cool $4 billion. Disney+ will become the exclusive home to Swift's content, over which Taylor will continue to retain full creative control and veto power. Her music is not being sold, but Disney will have first dibs on all properties and will distribute the first animated movie musical featuring Swift songs.

By: Jim Lavorato