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Sunday, December 17, 2017

Disney/Fox Deal A Sea-change For Movies

The combined company, 'New Disney', will boast a collection of top-tier franchises from 'The Simpsons' to 'Alien'.  This leaves the other studios looking anemic and much less powerful competitors as against the 'Old Disney or Fox'. Leaving Paramount (Viacom) and, to a lesser extent, Columbia (Sony) up against it and perhaps they are contemplating a merger/combination?

Universal, owned by the mega conglom Comcast, can hold its own. On the other hand, Warner Bros., owned by Time Warner will have to merge or be bought out.  AT&T (Verizon lost out on its bid for Warners) is now vying, awaiting approval from the Justice Department. Regardless, it appears that more combinations/buyouts of Hollywood is inevitable because they will need to compete against the Apples and Amazons which are turning their attention to becoming big media, as well as, big tech companies.

Impact of Movie Theaters

Disney had already been putting pressure on movie theaters by demanding a higher percentage of gross ticket sales for its films - the Disney/Fox combine will give Disney even more of an excuse to demand more from the exhibitors.  For 2017, Disney and Fox released a total of 30 major features and it is unlikely the combine will release as many going forward.  That gap however, I believe, will be filled by the silicon valley players.

Movie exhibition will be forced to add the likes of Netflix and Amazon to its roster of product deliverers for the big screen.  Exhibitors, large and small, will need to get creative and start to use their cinemas with a more diverse and inclusive product line.  On the flip side, Fox was very aggressive regarding the shortening of the exclusive theatrical release window, while Disney argued for a 90 day or longer exclusive theatrical runs.

CMG believes that anyway you slice it Disney just got a lot more formidable in the battle against all comers for entertainment craving eyeballs.

Stay in touch,
Jim Lavorato

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