BOX OFFICE RECAP
Green Lantern took in $52 million plus in its U.S. debut weekend, which was not the stellar showing Warner Bros. had hoped for their $200 million, highly marketed 3D product. Once again, 3D disappointed as only 45% of Green Lantern viewers opted for the higher priced 3D version..
Mr. Popper's Penguins premiered in third place over the weekend at $18.2 million, which was Fox's turn at disappointment. Super 8 held at second place and grossed a very decent $21.3 million in its second week of play.
Total YTD box office now stands at $4.2 billion with 538 million tickets sold at an average price of $7.86. Still playing catch up to 2010 numbers here are my predictions for some of the pending summer releases:
Hits: Cars 2 (6/24), Transformers (6/29), Harry Potter (7/5), Spy Kids (8/19)
Sleepers: Horrible Bosses (7/8), Bad Teacher (6/24), Crazy Stupid Love (7/2),
Dirty Girl (8/5)
So-So: Conan the Barbarian (8/19), The Zoo Keeper (7/8), Winnie the Pooh (7/15),
Captain America (7/22), The Smurfs (7/29)
No-Go: Larry Crowne (7/1), Cowboys and Aliens (7/29), Shark Night (9/2)
Youth Prefer Movies on Mobile Devices
Epix, a pay TV platform owned by Lionsgate, MGM, and Paramount, recently commissioned Ipsos/OTX Media (a media research firm) to study the habits of moviegoers in the 18-64 age group. The study found that increasingly, people (men and women) in the 18 - 36 age group, are using web enabled mobile devices to access movies. These devices included: tablets, SmartPhones, and notebooks. Older viewers in the 35-64 group prefered watching movies on TVs, with web connected HDTVs increasing in importance for movie viewing.
These findings show a trend toward accessing movies via an array of streaming devices and that content providers will, in the future, have to use every platform to "serve up" their products. As movie consumption on mobile and connected devices and platforms continues to grow in popularity content providers will focus on all and any means to distribute their content in its most lucrative fashion.
Cinemas must start NOW to change their business models to cope, survive, and prosper in light of the shift in how people want to view movies. We don't want cinemas to become Places of No !
3D - A Hollywood Has Been ?
In its fever to cash in on 3D's premium pricing movie distributors delivered what can only be kindly described as a mediocre product.
The public's distain of 3D is becoming readily apparent, due to several factors: high prices, don't like wearing glasses, see no compelling reason for the format, don't like viewing 3D.
Box office issues aside, the shift away from 3D movies by the public has not gone unnoticed by the stock market. Stocks of companies with large stakes in 3D have taken a beating. Dreamworks shares are down 16% since May end, while Real D (a big 3D proponent) stock plunged 26% during the past month!
Avatar may have been the undoing of 3D, as it set such a high bar in terms of what 3D could offer. Since Avatar's release it has really been downhill for the 3D format, as recently polled audiences don't consider 3D to be essential to the movie experience. Of the three top grossing domestic films (Hangover II, Pirates, and Fast Five) only Pirates was released in 3D but only 46% of its admissions were for the higher priced 3D tickets. Kung Fu Panda 2 the other big 3D disappoint for Hollywood, saw only 45% of its ticket sales for the 3D presentation.
Producing a film in 3D can add as much as 30% to the budget of a high-impact action film and 20% for an animated one. Green Lantern, a 3D action hero pic was anticipated to gross over $80 million out of the chute but grossed an anemic $52+ million - not good for a film that cost $200 million to produce and market. Transformers and Harry Potter, both to be released in 3D may well be the tipping point one way or the other for 3D. 34 films are scheduled for release in 3D for 2012, and at least 44 in 2013. A saving grace for 3D may be the overseas cinema where 3D is very popular.
My bets are on Hollywood's continued push of 3D given its high admission value but I also see the public continuing their resistance with lower 3D ticket sales. Recommendation: cheaper 3D admission pricing, say an up-charge of $1.
Best and Happy Movie Going
Jim Lavorato
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