It seems every time I speak with anyone associated with the industry - exhibitor, booker, distributor, manufacturer, or just run-of-the-mill rumor-monger or luminary - I'm confronted with a different set of "facts". Being such, I thought it would be beneficial and enlightening to ferret through the litter and make proper hash out of the myriad of gestalt.
Let me start by stating that the U.S. cinema is currently in a steady state of performance. The gross box office in 2011 totalled $10.2 billion, about 4% below 2010's $10.6 billion take. This downward glide was due entirely to lower admissions, which declined by 60 million (tickets sold) for 2011 and continued the decade-long trend of lower movie attendance by U.S. consumers. Admissions totalled 1.28 billion (which equates to 3.9 admissions per U.S. citizen) at an average admission price of $7.93.
Frequent moviegoers (those that visit their local cinema at least once per month) accounted for 50% of all tickets sold and are the real drivers of the box office. These frequenters make-up roughly 10% of the U.S. population and are split virtually 50/50 between male and female moviegoers. These "frequent 10% ers" are in the 18-39 age group - with Caucasians and Hispanics responsible for 56% and 24% respectively of their total.
In 2011, the 25-39 age group went to the movies must often as the younger frequent moviegoers (in the 18-24 age group) posted a decline in attendance by over 1 million admissions. As that group continues to gravitate to internet movie viewing and portends a trend that the cinema industry must address if it is to remain viable in the longer term.
DIGITAL CONVERSIONS & 3D
At 2011's end, there were 39,641 cinema screens in the U.S., of which 25,621 had been converted to digital projection. Of these conversions, 12,620 (about half) were equipped for 3D playback. The number of conversions accelerated in 2011 (there were 10,886 during the year) and the studios hope that the remaining (approx. 14,000 screens) will be converted by 2014.
The distributiors' Virtual Print Fee (VPF) Program is on-going and will most likely be extended beyond its expiration date of April's end (rumors are already circulating regarding the Program's extension) so as to prod the remaining conversion holdouts. It has always struck me sort as funny but I believe the VPF Program is backwards. The studios should have told exhibitors that if they wanted to convert to D-Cinema fine but if they didn't, they would be charged a "print fee". Therefore, the inducement for the exhibitor to convert would be money savings and if they didn't the studios received reimbursement for the cost of the film print. Needless to say, the studios opted for the much less tolerable current VPF scheme whereby the studios reimbusrse the exhibitors once they convert.
Regarding 3D, half of all moviegoers in 2011 attended a 3D movie. Young people, aged 12-24, were most likely to attend a 3D movie, while only 15% of those over age 60 attended a 3D presentation. At present, 3D remains a mixed bag, as the format has failed to deliver on its potential - a faux pas that rests entirely at the doorstep of the studios, and which they are trying to correct.
There were 610 bonafide films released in 2011 of which 45 were 3D. As in prior years, the top 25 films dominated the U.S. box office, amassing $4.48 billion of the total $10.2 billion gross or 44%. Of the top 25, 15 were PG-13s, 5 were PG, 3 Rs, and 2 G rated. Ten were released in 3D format.
International the Bright Star in the Movie Universe
As static as the U.S. cinema market is, the international scene is all about growth. Overseas the box office totalled $22.4 billion or double the U.S. total and represented a 7% increase over 2010. The largest growth came from Latin America (24%) principally from Mexico and Brazil. Asia Pacific grew by 6% principally from China - which grew by 35% and moved it into 2nd place as the largest overseas movie market behind Japan.
There are about 124,000 screens worldwide of which 61,000 are still film-based. Of the 63,000 that have converted to digital, 35,479 are 3D equipped. Growth of the international market, like the U.S., will slow over the next several years, and in turn become a steady state market as well. Again, the real threat for the cinema will come from the internet and the enhancement of the "living room" entertainment experience.
Best and Happy Movie Going!
Jim Lavorato
Sources for this article included: Cinema Mucho Gusto, Motion Picture Association of America, ScreenTrade Magazine, Google Media, The Numbers, Variety Magazine, and The Hollywood Reporter.
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