The Cinema - In Search of An Audience

Is the cinema industry losing its mojo? Or is it sabotaging itself with its latest trends. Those trends, that are intended to push the cinema to higher levels, include: d-cinema convergence, day-and-date theatrical/DVD/pay-per-view release, and the current deluge of cinema content.

Let's take them in that order, but first, a quick analysis of the industry.

Worldwide boxoffice for 2005 was $22 billion give-or-take. The top 100 film generated $14.4 billion or 65% of the total. The top 25 - $8.3 billion or 38%. The top 10 (alone) a whopping $5.2 billion or 24% (the U.S. boxoffice was even more skewed with the top ten accounting for 27% of total boxoffice). Of the top 10 - 8 were escape/fantasy films and 2 were comedy/drama. Of the top 25 - 11 were escape/fantasy, 8 comedy/drama, 4 adventure/drama, 1 horror, and 1 documentary.

There were 527 major releases in 2005. Worldwide there were 7.8 billion admissions, down from 8.4 billion in 2004. North America accounted for 45%, Europe - 30%, Asia/Pacific - 18%, all others - 7%.

Clearly, something is amiss with the cinema industry's feng shui.

With theatre utilization rates well below 20% the emphasis should be on increasing attendance. Therefore, more marketing should be placed on a slimmer roster of films, ones specific to genre proven to attract the largest audiences.

D-CINEMA CONVERGENCE
Digital-cinema won't help the boxoffice. In fact, it may decrease boxoffice revenues. Moviegoers may expect and demand a lower admission price on digitally-presented features. And why not? All things digital decrease in price.

And, like all things digital, the underpinning technology keeps evolving, forcing the latest d-cinema connection and conveyance mechanisms to atrophy through ever advancing innovation which is the inherent trait of the digital domain. This poses one immediate problem: the substantial investment in the required d-cinema gear - projectors, processors, servers, etc. - quickly reaches zero.

Another side effect of d-cinema, is the dampening effect it has had on overall exhibitor investment. The trumpeting of d-cinema has instigated a very cautious atmosphere with regard to investments in cinema exhibition. Exhibitors (particularly independents) have taken on a siege mentality which has stymied investment not only in expansions and renovations but also in new projection, sound, security, seating and concession upgrades. This is significant because although the larger theatre chains get the attention over 50% of U.S. movie screens are still owned and operated by smaller circuits and independents. D-Cinema is the perfect solution to a problem which doesn't exist.

DAY-AND-DATE RELEASES - A STRATEGY?
The theatrical release of major motion pictures represents the upfront marketing of the after sales, higher margin products - DVDs, music CDs, merchandising, pay-per-view, etc. The day-and-date release notion negates this critical quotient from the revenue stream formula. It turns a synergistic business model into a non-generative one. Simply put - it makes the pie smaller.

THE BIG BANG THEORY OF CONTENT
With over 500 major releases the industry needs to reassess. In addition to the major releases there is an uncontrolled flood of indies, film fest entries, shorts, docus, foreign films, etc. Anyone, with the urge to make a movie, and the requisite $5,000 admission fee (for a digital camera and a video software package) is producing a "movie". There are even awards for the 30 second cell phone camera flix. It's more and more swag cluttering an already saturated art form with no evident value.

GETTING BACK THE MOJO
The movie industry is all about content and not conveyance. It's not about simultaneous release modes or digital presentation but presenting content people are motivated to spend their time and money on against the myriad of other recreational activities available to them. With the possible exception of community-centric, non-movie alternative content, like it or not, based upon industry numbers current preferences (on a worldwide basis) bend toward escapism and humor.

In searching for an audience the cinema industry needs to focus on what works at the boxoffice and backburner schemes, projects, or programs which detract from this. That is how the cinema will get its mojo back.