WHERE IS THE CINEMA GOING?

I really hate to beat up on the cinema (again) but current trends point to a none to rosy future.

Last year the domestic B.O. totalled $10.3 billion, down about 3% from '09. However of this total the top 25 films accounted for $4.7b or 46%. Since there were 561 films released this indicates that there is a skewing for certain types of films while the studios are producing a lot of films people just are not interested in viewing at a cinema - or anywhere else for that matter. Oh, by the way, the top 10 films accounted for 27.5% of the total B.O.

However, the average ticket price was up 7% to $7.95, due entirely to premium 3D pricing (of the top 25 films 11 were released in 3D) as ticket sales were down 6% to 1.29b. And that comes to the crux of this post - the decline in ticket sales which represents the biggest problem facing the cinema industry. A 6% decline in demand for any product is hugh and a really bad omen. U.S. cinema ticket sales peaked in 2002 at 1.58b and have basically seen a steady decline reaching their lowest level in 2010. Not good given a growing U.S. population and the re-intro of 3D films, which Hollywood touted as the best thing since sliced bread.

Where are all the eyeballs going? Well, that's easy to figure, to every mobile device, game console, and social network, in a nutshell, the cinema is losing it luster and lure. If the top 25 films generate roughly 50% of the B.O. why produce/release over 500 films. And those were the same 25 films that generate the bulk of the international B.O. as well - which is even more skewed than the domestic B.O.

Something is wrong with this "picture", no pun intended.
The studios need to reassess their entire modus operendi, from what gets green lighted to the B.O. pricing structure. Why should it cost the same price to view Avatar as it does the 99th version of Harry Meets Sally, it makes no sense (a lot more on this topic in future posts).

With the obvious downtrend in movie attendance and the skewing of the B.O. gross to kid flix and high-impact, fantasy films the need to release 500 additional films (and lets face it, these films have no real product value in the video or TV market, except as filler and perhaps to keep Hollywood in full employ) is ridiculous.

Do I have the formula for box office success - NO, but making and releasing more films people are interested in viewing at a cinema (and we know the kinds of movies these are) and less films that play in empty theatres is a start.

Best and Happy Movie Going
Jim Lavorato