Box Office for 2020

The U.S. box office will most likely be 50% lower than 2019's - only reaching roughly $5.5b. Obviously, the longer movie theaters stay closed the harder it is for the studios to release their 2020 tentpoles.

However, unlike some industry analysts, CMG believes that people will return to visiting their local cinemas quickly and not be deterred by the virus.

CMG also predicts that there will be a significant bounce-back to moviegoing in 2021 - back to the $10-12b gate. Reason: there will be very strong slate of movies in 2021 bolstered by 2020 holdovers plus new releases. The problem for the movie industry is 2022 and beyond if production doesn't ramp-up soon.

It comes as no surprise that the theatrical 'windowing' issue has now shifted in favor of the studios who want a shorter than 90 day theatrical exclusive. The shortening of the 'window' will come to pass.

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Jim Lavorato